Radio Free Wall Street 7/29/2008

Lee Adler, Russ Winter, and Aaron Krowne analyze the impact of key financial events on the financial markets and economy, tell what to look for in the weeks and months ahead, and discuss strategies for the short, intermediate and long term? Not a subscriber? Click here for a free extended preview of this podcast.

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7 comments for “Radio Free Wall Street 7/29/2008

  1. don
    July 29, 2008 at 6:06 pm

    Please, please, enough of these “theories” based on hunches backed up by a few news stories. We had the hoarding theory, then the global hyperinflation theory, now the Paulson hatched plot coordinated with foreign capital to sell/buy US assets.

    I perceive a contradiction here between the notion that capital destruction is fast apace while hyperinflation will result from monetization. Which one is it? Monetization has absolutely no chance of succeeding unless FCB continue to recycle dollars at an even increased pace. Won’t happen as they face their own economic decline and as the US demand for their products declines fast. So, what happens as dollars become more scare? Can’t have it both ways. Besides, monetization will not out run the dissolving shadow banking credit/debt machine.

    Here is a link to a blog that provides links (and quotes) to numerous news stories regarding economic decline in China. (The dispelled magic of China’s supposed perpetual rise will come as a shocker for a lot of true believers.)

    http://www.economicpopulist.org/?q=content/chinas-bubble-bursting

    Good comments on money markets. Bears repeating.

    How about getting back to more discussion regarding the ‘real’ economy, real people and real lives. For instance, three retail store chains announced they’re going bankrupt today, malls are getting slammed, all of which means layoffs. The big story in 2009 will be the nation’s fiscal deficit, declining tax revenues, and the BIG issue: loss of JOBS.

    Paulson’s, Bernanke’s, the banks, etc., repeated press conferences and futile attempts to starve off the crisis and instill “confidence” reflect this: they know a lot more of what’s coming down the pipeline than we do, and they are scared shitless.

    Full disclosure: I’m a deflationista.

  2. July 29, 2008 at 8:09 pm

    Don, while I am in essential agreement with you, I need to be challenged by smart people with ideas that are different, or at least more nuanced than mine. I need those challenges to further my own thinking.

    In truth none of us knows how this is going to play out. We may think we know, but we don’t. The bottom line for me is to try to help our subscribers preserve capital, and take advantage of the twists and turns along the road in order to profit from them. There are many ways to do that, and as I stressed in our discussion today, much of how you approach things depends on one’s time horizons.

  3. Bill Mais
    July 30, 2008 at 1:12 pm

    Please have Aaron check his facts on CEF. It is currently $743 million in gold and $673 million in silver per etfconnect.com. 51.6% gold , 46.74% silver. I heard him say they had = ounces of each which obviously is way off. i enjoy the podcasts.

  4. Lee Adler
    July 30, 2008 at 1:54 pm

    Bill- Thanks for the clarification. I was wondering about that myself.

    With an even higher weighting of silver, Aaron likes it even better.

  5. mijsleinad
    July 31, 2008 at 12:29 am

    Lee is 100% on the mark.

    The cost of all debt is a function of demand for credit, public and private, and the supply of capital to originate debt.

    All these convoluted “inflation” ideas, that Russ and Aaron come up with to support their bets, are pure fantasy.

    The cost of overnight money needed by banks to balance reserves (EFF) and the market driven costs on the CPI are apples and oranges.

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