Sniffing The Hot Air Coming Out of Jackson Hole

With all the hot air coming out of Jackson Hole, Lee Adler reminds us to stay focused on the things that matter. He illustrates what we know for a fact about central bank policies and markets, and their likely directions.

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Today’s RFWS was absolutely outstanding. (I’m glad I actually watched this one rather than just listening while running.) When it comes to financial journalism, Lee, you remain an island of sanity in a huge sea of crap. Thanks.


CORRECTION: In the first chart in this video I calculated the ECB’s contribution incorrectly in converting to the dollar equivalency, resulting in the ECB’s contribution being underweighted in the composite graph. The total percentage change in central bank balance sheets over the period was 126%, not 185% as stated in the video. The direction of the composite line did not change and the angle of the line did not change materially. Only the scale is different. This does not impact the analysis in any way. In fact, an argument can be made that the ECB should be underweighted because it does not have a Primary Dealer system and has not yet done outright asset purchases to any meaningful degree. Here is the updated chart.

Aggregate Central Bank Balance Sheet - Click to enlarge

Aggregate Central Bank Balance Sheet – Click to enlarge

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